“Water Swings” of the Syr Darya

 

Prague, September 25, Free Eurasia.For several years, southern Kazakhstan has been living in the rhythm of “water swings.” In winter, excess water from the upper reaches threatens floods; in summer, shortages in irrigation canals leave farmers without reliable watering. At the center of this drama lies the Syr Darya River and the Shardara Reservoir, the largest water hub in the south of the country.

The Shardara Reservoir, built in the 1960s on the Syr Darya near the city of Shardara, remains the main water hub of the south. Covering nearly 900 square kilometers with a useful volume of about 4.2 billion cubic meters, it serves multiple functions: regulating river flow, supplying Kazakhstan’s irrigation systems, powering the Shardara hydropower plant, and protecting downstream areas from floods.

In practice, however, this balance is hard to maintain. In winter, when Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan release water to generate electricity, Shardara fills rapidly and must open its gates. This causes floods, the most severe of which Kazakhstan experienced in spring 2024.

In summer, the opposite occurs: after winter discharges, levels drop, and at the peak of irrigation season farmers face water shortages. In August 2025, residents of Shardara faced a complete lack of water. According to the Turkestan regional administration, the reservoir’s water level fell critically, and on August 6, water supply to Shardara stopped altogether.

These fluctuations make Shardara less a “culprit” than an indicator of the overall state of the Syr Darya basin, which supplies water to the countries of Central Asia.

The Syr Darya carries its waters from the mountains of Kyrgyzstan to the Aral Sea. Along the way, its flow is accumulated and regulated by several major reservoirs: Toktogul in Kyrgyzstan, Charvak and Andijan in Uzbekistan, and Bahri Tojik in Tajikistan. Only then does the river reach Kazakhstan, flow into Shardara, and continue toward the dried delta of the Aral.

Each country has its own priorities. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan release water in winter to generate electricity. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan need it in summer for irrigation. This seasonal conflict of interests produces a paradox: excess in winter, scarcity in summer.

During the Soviet period, the annual water needs of the four republics in the Syr Darya basin were met by regulating the operation of the Naryn cascade of reservoirs, in line with irrigation schedules and the priorities of irrigated land development. Orders and quotas came from above.

After 1991, coordination weakened, replaced by yearly “manual agreements” among countries. Today, the region is moving back toward formalization. The Interstate Water Management Commission now sets seasonal limits and reservoir operating regimes.

In 2025, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan for the first time agreed on a joint summer operating regime for Bahri Tojik to support downstream areas. This does not solve all problems, but it shows the dialogue mechanism is working.

According to the UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), recent years have seen progress in transboundary water agreements in Central Asia: a new Water Code, the launch of a coordination council of partners, digitalization of accounting, and early-warning systems for floods and droughts. These are steps toward greater resilience.

Yet despite this progress, the current system has major weaknesses — asynchronous national interests, a lack of transparent data, and aging infrastructure.

UNECE notes that while international projects have created working groups and organized workshops for water resource agencies and hydrometeorological organizations, this is more about “developing common approaches” than establishing full-fledged real-time data exchange.

The report Progress on Transboundary Water Cooperation 2020–2023 stresses that decisions in the region are often made after the fact due to insufficient data on current flows and water withdrawals.

The latest UN global review of SDG indicators (2024) highlights the same problem: not all transboundary basins in Central Asia are covered by agreements ensuring timely data exchange. As a result, countries struggle to synchronize reservoir operations and plan water distribution in advance.

Free Eurasia background: (SDG indicators are statistical metrics used to track progress toward the 17 Sustainable Development Goals adopted by the UN in 2015. They help assess how successfully the 2030 Agenda is being implemented, covering poverty reduction, environmental protection, and ensuring peace and well-being for all.)

Experts warn that if data shortages and institutional fragmentation persist, by 2026 Central Asian countries may again face serious consequences. In winter, with heavy snowmelt and uncoordinated upstream discharges, the Shardara Reservoir risks overflowing and opening its gates — threatening new floods in southern Kazakhstan.

In summer, without agreed irrigation schedules and water withdrawal controls, Shardara’s level could fall to critical lows, jeopardizing harvests and farmers’ incomes. All this will inevitably be accompanied by political frictions: upstream countries will accuse downstream ones of overuse, while downstream countries will blame upstream ones for uncoordinated releases.

In the long term, the risks are even higher. Melting glaciers in the Tien Shan and Pamirs will reduce the Syr Darya’s natural flow. Without a sustainable system of joint planning, water scarcity will become chronic, undermining food security in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, fueling migration from rural areas, and heightening social tensions. Water will remain a source of regional vulnerability: every flood or drought will become a test not only for the economy but also for trust among Central Asian states.

Damir Usmanov, for Free Eurasia